Post by havingfunnow on May 29, 2009 21:34:27 GMT -5
I recently received a well prepared and convincing to the novice email about a secret system to winning at Roulette from someone to review.
I have had multiple Statistics courses, and knew this was not possible. So I decided to dissect the email. It promises that if you bet on one color and lose, then just double your money and bet the color again; using statistics to show the probability of the color coming up next, if it has lost the x number of time before.
So the table they use infers that if you have lost 8 times in a row, you have a 99.8% chance of a win! This is not true. If you flip a coin, the odds are 50%, it will come up heads. If you flip the coin again, the odds are again 50% that it will come up heads, not 75%. This is a simple explanation, but hopefully you can get the meaning. There is no progression, each spin of of the wheel is separate in itself, and has no bearing on on how many previous spins were either red or black.
The next thing to look at, is they portray the amount won as double your bet, but if you use their system, and have lost 8 times and make your ninth bet and win! What have you won
Lost 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 = $255 and won $256 to equal a grand total of $1.
The email had an link to a buried webpage of a school for the disabled, which then had a link to a website that had a download dot exe file, which contained malware to obtain your private information when you joined their 'casino', a known phishing site.
And another thing is that they state you should NEVER use the system for an American based online casino, because you will be banned from all online American casinos for life. NO, the reason is that you have no recourse against international casinos, and your money is irrevocably gone.
Hope this prevent anyone from making a mistake,
Louis
I have had multiple Statistics courses, and knew this was not possible. So I decided to dissect the email. It promises that if you bet on one color and lose, then just double your money and bet the color again; using statistics to show the probability of the color coming up next, if it has lost the x number of time before.
Black $ | Red $ | Probability of Win |
1 | 1 | 50% |
2 | 2 | 75% |
4 | 4 | 87.5% |
8 | 8 | 93.75% |
16 | 16 | 96.87% |
32 | 32 | 98.43% |
64 | 64 | 99.22% |
128 | 128 | 99.61% |
256 | 256 | 99.8% |
So the table they use infers that if you have lost 8 times in a row, you have a 99.8% chance of a win! This is not true. If you flip a coin, the odds are 50%, it will come up heads. If you flip the coin again, the odds are again 50% that it will come up heads, not 75%. This is a simple explanation, but hopefully you can get the meaning. There is no progression, each spin of of the wheel is separate in itself, and has no bearing on on how many previous spins were either red or black.
The next thing to look at, is they portray the amount won as double your bet, but if you use their system, and have lost 8 times and make your ninth bet and win! What have you won
Lost 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 = $255 and won $256 to equal a grand total of $1.
The email had an link to a buried webpage of a school for the disabled, which then had a link to a website that had a download dot exe file, which contained malware to obtain your private information when you joined their 'casino', a known phishing site.
And another thing is that they state you should NEVER use the system for an American based online casino, because you will be banned from all online American casinos for life. NO, the reason is that you have no recourse against international casinos, and your money is irrevocably gone.
Hope this prevent anyone from making a mistake,
Louis